The purpose of  the article is to try a probability approach to  History, and to explain, on a concrete historical example, such  concepts as virtual events, historical events and miracle events. The necessary historical expertise is taken from THE SECOND WORLD  WAR by Winston Churchill and THE TWO-OCEAN WAR by  S.E.Morison, the two-time winner of the Pulitzer prise and the  official historian of the global war at sea. The article uses standard mathematical operations $\cup$ (set union) and $\cap$ (set  intersection), and symbols $\subset$ (subset) and $\in$  (element).